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Acceptance of XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) skyrockets to 80% following SEC-Ripple settlement agreement

Odds of approving an XRP ETF have significantly increased, reaching approximately 80%, with Bloomberg's ETF analyst predicting a 95% chance of SEC's endorsement for these products.

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Chances of XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval surge to 80% following SEC-Ripple legal...
Chances of XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval surge to 80% following SEC-Ripple legal settlement

Acceptance of XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) skyrockets to 80% following SEC-Ripple settlement agreement

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, is expected to file for crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focusing on XRP and Solana before the SEC's October 2025 approval deadline, assuming regulatory guidelines become clearer. This anticipation stems from analysts like Nate Geraci of the ETF Institute, who believes that BlackRock has been waiting for favourable regulatory developments, such as the recent SEC-Ripple legal settlement, before making a move.

Currently, BlackRock's focus remains on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs due to stronger institutional demand. However, the company acknowledges the growing relevance of altcoins like XRP and Solana for broadening its crypto ETF offering. BlackRock's cautious approach primarily reflects ongoing regulatory uncertainty around XRP's classification and the SEC's evolving stance, despite a favourable court ruling that XRP is not a security in exchange trades.

Analysts estimate an 85-90% probability of SEC approval for an XRP spot ETF if filed, based on recent shifts in regulatory attitude and the Ripple litigation outcome. The approval of a BlackRock XRP ETF could significantly boost XRP's market value, with some forecasting major price appreciation linked to institutional ETF inflows.

However, options traders are still heavily hedging against further downside risks despite the relief rally. The 25 Delta Skew turned negative and dropped across the 1-day, 1-week, and 3-month tenors, illustrating weakening sentiment. There was also a premium for short-dated put options (bearish bets), according to Laevitas' data.

In the XRP market, traders bought over 1.8 billion XRP at each of the $2.70-$2.80 and $2.40-$2.50 zones, reinforcing these levels as key support areas. These support zones now serve as potential floors in the event of a short-term pullback.

Despite the offloading of over $6 billion XRP in the past few days, flipping whale demand to negative, Commissioner Crenshaw of the SEC is outnumbered and cannot prevent the products from going live, according to Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg. Balchunas opines that BlackRock may only stick to the two top crypto assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum, implying that only these two assets have value according to Geraci.

In summary, BlackRock's potential XRP and Solana ETF filings are eagerly awaited, with the October deadline marking a critical window for these decisions. The key considerations include regulatory clarity, SEC policy shifts, and the outcome of the SEC-Ripple settlement.

| Aspect | Status / Odds | |----------------------------|-----------------------------------------------| | BlackRock XRP ETF Filing | Expected before October 2025 if regulators clarify guidelines | | BlackRock Solana ETF Filing | Also likely around October 2025 | | Current filing status | No filings yet for XRP or Solana spot ETFs | | XRP ETF approval odds | Estimated at 85-90% if filed | | Key considerations | Regulatory clarity, SEC policy shifts, SEC-Ripple settlement |

  1. Despite the ongoing focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum, BlackRock is anticipating to file for crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focusing on XRP and Solana by October 2025, given regulatory guidelines become clearer.
  2. Analysts project an 85-90% probability of SEC approval for a BlackRock XRP ETF if filed, based on recent shifts in regulatory attitude and the Ripple litigation outcome.
  3. If approved, a BlackRock XRP ETF could significantly boost XRP's market value, with some forecasting major price appreciation linked to institutional ETF inflows.
  4. However, options traders remain cautious, with a premium for short-dated put options (bearish bets) and a weakening sentiment indicated by the 25 Delta Skew turning negative.
  5. Commissioner Crenshaw of the SEC may be unable to prevent BlackRock's XRP and Solana ETFs from going live, according to Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, suggesting that only Bitcoin and Ethereum may be the focus for BlackRock in terms of perceived value.

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