Affordable nuclear construction demonstrated by China, challenging high costs often associated with such plants
In a recent analysis published in Nature, a team of researchers, led by Shangwei Liu from Harvard's Kennedy School, has compared nuclear construction costs in China, the United States, and France. The study, co-authored by Dan Kammen, the Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of the Just Energy Transition at Johns Hopkins, calls for deeper component-level cost analysis and greater alignment between safety and cost control in regulatory systems.
The analysis reveals that China has significantly reduced nuclear construction costs compared to the US and France. This achievement is primarily due to China's strategy centered on standardized construction processes, mass industrialization, and strong state financing.
Key factors in China's strategy include standardization and mass production, stable and extensive state financing, domestic supply chain development and regulatory stability, and avoidance of complexity and size escalation. By building many reactors concurrently, China enables economies of scale through bulk purchasing of materials and repetition of construction methods, resulting in lower costs compared to countries like France, where few projects and non-standardized designs increase per-unit costs.
China's nuclear projects receive massive state support, resulting in a very low cost of capital. This contrasts with Europe and the US, where reliance on private investment exposes projects to political and regulatory risks, increasing financing costs and causing cost overruns.
China has strategically developed domestic supply chains, reducing dependency on imports and minimizing cost volatility. Furthermore, a stable regulatory environment reduces delays and uncertainties that otherwise raise costs in Western projects.
Unlike some Western projects that grow in complexity and scale, China maintains reactor sizes around one gigawatt, avoiding cost increases related to scaling up reactor size.
The current cost of the highly standardized Chinese-designed plants is about $2/watt, according to the authors. This is about half that of the average costs in the United States and France. In the US, construction and operating costs for nuclear plants are dramatically less than in China and France. The average costs for new nuclear plants in the United States can be as high as $15/watt, while the latest French plants cost over $4/watt.
The study suggests that the cost reduction in China is not just through technology, but also through policy, institutions, and supply chain coordination. It urges decision-makers to learn from both success stories and setbacks as interest in small modular reactors grows and new nations enter the nuclear arena.
The authors caution that nuclear power is still not cheap but offer China's experience as a valuable playbook for other countries aiming to deploy nuclear energy affordably and at scale. They also highlight that a key question for future research and practical demonstration is what happens to the costs-and the risks-of nuclear power when plants age and end-of-life and decommissioning costs must be addressed.
Minghao Qiu suggests that countries that export nuclear technology should collaborate with importing ones to identify components that can be locally manufactured. Gang He adds that strategic indigenization may be crucial for other clean technologies seeking to scale up rapidly.
Kammen, who plays a leadership role in Hopkins' Ralph O'Connor Institute of Sustainable Energy, states that breaking the cost curse will take more than technology-it will take a smart and strategic approach. He emphasizes that the key to success lies in understanding the interplay between technology, policy, institutions, and supply chains.
- The study co-authored by Dan Kammen calls for further research on the cost analysis of nuclear technology components, emphasizing the need for organization and cost control alignment in regulatory systems.
- China's strategy for reducing nuclear construction costs is rooted in standardization and mass industrialization, state financing, domestic supply chain development, and regulatory stability, enabling economies of scale and lower costs compared to other countries.
- The authors of the analysis suggest that the cost reduction achieved in China is not only due to technology but also due to policy, institutional, and supply-chain coordination, urging decision-makers to learn from both successes and failures as the interest in small modular reactors grows.
- To attain a cost-efficient deployment of nuclear energy, Kammen states that a strategic and smart approach is required, focusing on the interplay between technology, policy, institutions, and supply chains.
