Anticipated Decline Foreseen for Thai Stock Exchange
**Thai Stock Market and Asian Markets Face Cautious Outlook Amid Global Uncertainties**
The Thai stock market and broader Asian markets are expected to maintain a cautious outlook in the coming days, as ongoing tariff concerns and global uncertainties continue to cast a shadow over the region's economies.
On Friday, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) finished modestly lower, with losses across various sectors, including food, finance, industrial, property, resource, service, and technology. The SET index is currently just beneath the 1,120-point plateau and is predicted to see further downside on Monday, reflecting political instability, slowing economic momentum, and global uncertainties.
Analysts have revised down their 2025 earnings forecasts for Thai stocks, with EPS estimates lowered to 85.43 baht from an earlier 90.03 baht. The Thai economy is expected to slow, with GDP growth forecasts downgraded to around 1.87% for 2025, compared to 2.56% previously. Portfolio diversification is recommended, with analysts suggesting up to 33% of investments in foreign equities to hedge against rising risks domestically.
The recent U.S.–Vietnam trade agreement, which includes significant U.S. tariffs imposed on Vietnamese imports, raises concerns that Thailand could face a similar or even harsher tariff regime given its lesser strategic importance to the U.S. INVX Research outlines three scenarios for Thailand related to potential U.S. export tariffs, with a worst-case scenario (30% probability) involving tariffs up to 37%, which could cause a GDP contraction and a SET index fall below 1,000 points.
Broader Asian markets have shown mixed performances, affected by geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility. South Korea's Kospi has recently gained, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 declined slightly, reflecting uneven investor sentiment. Trade talks between the U.S. and China continue to influence market direction, with hopes for agreement underpinning some positive momentum, but markets remain wary due to the lack of details on tariff decisions.
The U.S. market closure on Friday can lead to reduced liquidity and increased volatility in Asian markets due to the lack of U.S. trading activity, intensifying cautious trading behavior among investors in the region.
In Thailand, June numbers for consumer prices are set to be released today, with overall inflation expected to dip 0.12 percent on year, down from 0.57 percent in May. Core CPI is seen higher by an annual 1.10 percent, up fractionally from 1.09 percent in the previous month.
No new information about the U.S. tariffs was provided, but U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that his government will send letters to trading partners outlining unilateral tariffs that will take effect on August 1, with the July 9 deadline to strike deals with the U.S. just a few days away. The EU acknowledges that a comprehensive deal is unlikely to be reached by the July 9 deadline.
For the day, the index sank 7.27 points or 0.64 percent to finish at 1,119.94. Among the actives, Thailand Airport crashed 3.20 percent, Bangkok Expressway was down 1.25 percent, BTS Group cratered 1.69 percent, True Corporation tanked 2.70 percent, TTB Bank retreated 1.55 percent, and Bangkok Dusit Medical was unchanged.
Investors are urged to remain vigilant and to closely monitor global developments, particularly tariff policies and trade progress, as these factors continue to significantly impact the performance of the Thai and Asian stock markets.
Economists have suggested that a portion of investments should be allocated to foreign equities to mitigate domestic risks in light of potential U.S. export tariffs, which could have a significant impact on the Thai stock market and other Asian markets. Amidst global uncertainties and ongoing tariff concerns, the finesse of technology-driven businesses in the realm of investing will become crucial for navigating the turbulent waters of the Asian markets.
