Bitcoin Indicators Point Toward Long-Lasting Bull Market as Price Remains Above Seven Zero- Hundredths: Experts
Bitcoin is currently trading above $100,000 while its realized price hovers around $45,000, according to CryptoQuant researcher Axel Adler on May 14. He notes that the daily realized price yield ranges from 0.10% to 0.23%, which translates to 36% to 85% annualized.
The realized price of Bitcoin represents the average price at which all BTC was last transacted on-chain, weighted by supply. This metric offers a more accurate representation of the market's cost basis compared to the current market price.
Meanwhile, the 30-day simple moving average is approximately 0.10% per day or around 35% to 40% annualized.
"These positive yet moderate returns indicate a sustained bull phase underpinned by solid fundamentals," Axel Adler said.
Retail Investors Make a Comeback
Glassnode reported that Bitcoin's realized capitalization has grown by nearly $30 billion after a period of stagnation in April. The metric is growing at around 3% per month, according to Glassnode.
However, the pace of growth still lags behind the aggressive accumulation seen in November and December 2024 following the election of US President Donald Trump.
Moreover, Bitcoin's long-term holder realized price has risen to $45,340, reflecting coins bought around $90K to $100K into long-term status. Buyers from December are now long-term holders, gradually lifting the cohort's cost basis. This indicates reduced selling pressure and keeps sentiment bullish.
CryptoQuant analysts have also reported that retail investors are beginning to return to Bitcoin markets. On May 14, they noted a 3.4% increase in purchases from small retail investors with balances below $10,000 since April 28. This signals renewed market confidence.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Bitcoin's intraday high was just over $104,000 on Wednesday, but the markets have cooled off since, with the asset falling below $102,000 during the Thursday morning Asian trading session.
Despite this temporary dip, Bitcoin has spent a week holding above six figures, and the longer it remains there, the more likely it is to move higher.
Over the past month, BTC has made 20% and is currently just 5.6% away from its January all-time high of $108,786, according to CoinGecko.
Technical analyst Tony Severino suggests that range breakouts "tend to be strong and happen in one large weekly candle," potentially happening by the end of May.
[1] Trading above $100,000 while its realized price is around $45,000 signals a sustained bull phase (CryptoQuant researcher Axel Adler).[2] Increased retail participation helps reinforce and sustain bull markets (CryptoQuant).[3] Institutional investors have dominated buying throughout 2025, while retail investors sold off earlier in the year (various sources).[4] retail investors have increased their buying activity since late April 2025 (Glassnode, CryptoQuant).[5] small retail investors with balances below $10,000 have gradually returned to Bitcoin (CryptoQuant).
- The sustained bull phase of Bitcoin is evident as it trades above $100,000, while its realized price is around $45,000 (Axel Adler, CryptoQuant researcher).
- Increased retail participation in the market can help reinforce and sustain bull markets (CryptoQuant).
- Institutional investors have largely dominated Bitcoin buying throughout 2025, while retail investors sold off earlier in the year (various sources).
- Retail investors have gradually increased their buying activity since late April 2025, as indicated by Glassnode and CryptoQuant data.
- Small retail investors with balances below $10,000 are beginning to return to Bitcoin markets, leading to renewed market confidence (CryptoQuant analysis).
