Bitcoin's Peak in November Challenged by a Market Analyst based on a 9 to 12-month Retail Pattern
In the current market landscape, Bitcoin is experiencing a slight dip, trading at $114,460, having declined by about 3.7% in the past seven days. Amidst this fluctuation, crypto market commentator Quinten Francois offers a unique perspective on the timeline of the bull market's peak.
Contrary to some analysts' forecasts of a market peak in October or November, Francois argues that a peak in late 2025 (e.g., November) is unlikely. Instead, he predicts the major peak will more plausibly occur in the second or third quarter of 2026.
Francois bases his prediction on the recurring 9-12 month retail cycle following the onset of the altseason. In both 2017 and 2021, the altseason began in Q1 of those respective bull market years. The current altseason has not yet started in earnest, and the ETH/BTC ratio is only beginning to reverse, leading Francois to conclude that the market is still in the early stages.
Furthermore, Francois points out that the typical retail euphoria and speculative buying cycle take 9-12 months to fully develop after altseason starts. Given that this cycle has not yet begun, a November 2025 peak would require skipping the altcoin cycle or a black swan event, which Francois finds unlikely.
While other technical analysts have suggested potential Bitcoin price tops between $140,000 and $200,000, Francois himself does not provide a specific price target, instead emphasising the timing of the cycle peak.
In summary, Quinten Francois predicts the Bitcoin bull cycle peak will arrive later than many expect, leaning towards the middle of 2026 instead of late 2025, based on the recurring 9-12 month retail cycle following the onset of altseason and current market indicators.
The debate around Bitcoin's top for this cycle is a major topic, with Francois' predictions offering a unique insight into the potential timeline of the market's movement. His arguments, based on historical data and market psychology, were made on the social media platform X.
As the market continues to evolve, it remains to be seen whether Francois' predictions will hold true. However, his analysis underscores the importance of understanding historical trends and market psychology in predicting the future direction of Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market.
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- In contrast to certain analysts forecasting a bull market peak in October or November, crypto market commentator Quinten Francois predicts a more probable peak in the second or third quarter of 2026, based on historical trends and market psychology.
- Francois attributes his prediction to the recurring 9-12 month retail cycle following the onset of the altseason, which has not yet commenced in earnest, as suggested by the current ETH/BTC ratio.
- While other technical analysts propose potential Bitcoin price tops ranging from $140,000 to $200,000, Francois refrains from providing a specific price target and instead emphasizes the timing of the cycle peak.
- Francois' unique insights into the potential timeline of the Bitcoin market's movement have sparked an ongoing debate, with his analysis emphasizing the significance of understanding historical trends and market psychology to predict future crypto market directions.
