Competition between Rivian and Lucid: Which Electric Vehicle Stock Demonstrates Superiority in 2025?
In the rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) market, two major players, Rivian and Lucid, have faced challenges in meeting their production and delivery targets. These struggles are primarily due to supply chain issues, tariff-related cost pressures, and production scaling challenges in a volatile global trade environment.
Despite ending its latest quarter with about $5.7 billion in liquidity, backed by Saudi Arabia's sovereign Public Investment Fund, Lucid's 2025 production target was lowered from 20,000 vehicles to a range of 18,000 to 20,000 vehicles due to supply bottlenecks. Rivian, on the other hand, faced even more severe challenges, with production, delivery, and revenue declines reported in Q2 2025.
In 2022, Rivian produced only 24,337 vehicles despite claiming it could produce 50,000 vehicles. At their record highs, Rivian's market cap was $153.3 billion, which was 92 times its 2022 revenue, while Lucid's market cap was $91.4 billion, 150 times its 2022 revenue.
Both companies sell multiple electric vehicles. Rivian offers the R1T pickup, R1S full-size SUV, and an electric delivery van for Amazon and other companies, while Lucid sells the Air sedan and the upcoming Gravity SUV.
Rivian's primary investor is Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and they are also supported by Porsche, Saudi Arabian conglomerate Abdul Latif Jameel, and other investors, ending their latest quarter with $8.5 billion in liquidity. Lucid sells two vehicles, the Air sedan and the Gravity SUV.
Analysts expect Rivian's revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% from 2024 to 2027, while Lucid's revenue is expected to rise at a CAGR of 85%. Rivian trades at 3.2 times this year's sales, and Lucid trades at 6.9 times this year's sales. Neither company is expected to break even, but Rivian's gross margins turned positive over the past two quarters, while Lucid's gross margins are still negative.
However, both companies' stocks have not fared well. Rivian's stock has only risen 5% since the beginning of 2025, and Lucid's stock dipped 3% during the same period. In 2023, Rivian's production more than doubled to 57,232 vehicles, but fell short of original estimates in 2024, with production dipping to 49,476 vehicles due to rising rates, market challenges, and plant upgrades. Lucid's deliveries rose to 6,001 vehicles in 2023 and 10,241 vehicles in 2024, also falling short of original estimates.
Notably, Lucid's CEO, Peter Rawlinson, stepped down in February 2025, and the board has not yet appointed a permanent successor. Rivian's founder and CEO, RJ Scaringe, remains in charge of the company.
Looking ahead, both companies expect to deliver more vehicles in 2025. Lucid claims it can produce 20,000 vehicles in 2025, ramping up production of the Gravity SUV, but it has a history of missing its own expectations. Rivian expects to deliver 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles in 2025, facing higher tariffs, supply chain issues, and another temporary shutdown.
In summary, both companies' struggles arose from supply chain constraints, tariff and trade tensions increasing costs and disrupting supply, and production scaling challenges amidst a volatile economic and geopolitical environment. Lucid’s ability to partially mitigate these through vertical integration has helped somewhat, but both companies have still had to temper their initial high-growth projections.
- With financial backing from Saudi Arabia's sovereign Public Investment Fund, lucid has attempted to invest heavily in technology, such as improving battery production to meet their production targets.
- In the fast-paced world of finance, Rivian's stock value has only risen 5% since the beginning of 2025, reflecting investor uncertainty about the company's ability to meet its ambitious production and delivery goals.
- Despite the challenges faced by both Rivian and Lucid in the electric vehicle market, analysts predict a significant growth in their revenue, with Rivian's expected to grow at a CAGR of 32% and Lucid's at 85%, indicating a strong future for these finance-intensive industries.
