Prediction of Bitcoin Prices: Likelihood of BTC Ranging Between $156,000 and $168,000 by Year's End
September, traditionally a crucial month, marks the beginning of the fourth quarter (Q4), which is known as the biggest bullish window for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin tends to perform strongly in July and August but often experiences a notable price decline or crash in September.
Despite this September weakness, Q4 has traditionally been a very strong period for Bitcoin, with average gains significantly outperforming Q3, sometimes over 85% versus about 6% in Q3. This suggests that while September might bring short-term volatility or correction, it sets the stage for a strong rally and price appreciation in Q4.
The market now prices 94.4% odds of a 25 bps cut at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, according to FedWatch. This surge in tariff inflows reinforces a dovish market bias, and market sentiment is further supported by Donald Trump's comments that tariffs haven't driven inflation.
For 2025, while a September correction remains a risk, macro factors like Fed rate cuts and institutional demand may fuel a significant Q4 price surge. Some analysts and macro observers remain cautious about a September dip based on historical fractals and technical patterns. Yet others, including prominent figures like Anthony Pompliano, forecast a bullish Q4 driven by institutional adoption, macroeconomic catalysts, and inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, possibly pushing Bitcoin prices between $140,000 and $260,000 by late 2025.
Interestingly, alternative views propose that Bitcoin might be entering a “supercycle” phase, where instead of sharp seasonal crashes and rallies, it would exhibit a more gradual upward trend with milder pullbacks. If this scenario unfolds, September declines might be less severe or absent, supporting steadier gains through Q4.
From a modeling perspective, using a more 'conservative' Q4 projection of 30-40% upside from the current Bitcoin level of $120k, the implied year-end target zone sits at $156k-$168k. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month is as expected, and this CPI data provides fresh ammunition for the September-cut narrative.
July saw a 273% surge in tariff inflows to $25 billion, and the CPI figure slots perfectly with Bitcoin's (BTC) tight range just under all-time high supply. The market's positioning is elevated, reflecting front-loaded rate-cut bets into the September FOMC meeting. The current chop could be a potential sweet spot for outsized Q4 gains in Bitcoin.
September historically has been a toss-up for Bitcoin, with only 4 out of 12 Septembers closing green. However, the CPI figure is considered the most bullish macro headline in a while, and much now hinges on how September unfolds. July's softer-than-feared CPI kept inflation tame, and this CPI data provides a positive outlook for the Bitcoin market in the coming months.
In summary, September historically shows price weakness or corrections following strong July-August performance. Q4 is usually Bitcoin's best quarter, with large average gains, making the September weakness often a temporary pullback before strong year-end rallies. For 2025, while a September correction remains a risk, macro factors like Fed rate cuts and institutional demand may fuel a significant Q4 price surge. Alternative “supercycle” thinking suggests potentially smoother upward trends without steep September crashes, supporting long-term bullish momentum. Thus, the historical September performance signals a potential short-term risk but also underlines a likely setup for strong price appreciation in Q4. Investors often watch September as a critical period for adjusting exposure in anticipation of year-end rallies.
[1] https://www.tradingview.com/bitcoin/analysis/September-Weakness-in-Bitcoin-Historical-Pattern/ [2] https://decrypt.co/72181/why-bitcoin-is-entering-a-supercycle [3] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin-halving.asp [4] https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/09/15/bitcoin-price-could-hit-260k-by-year-end-says-anthony-pompliano/ [5] https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/09/15/bitcoin-price-could-hit-260k-by-year-end-says-anthony-pompliano/
- The fourth quarter (Q4), often regarded as the strongest period for Bitcoin, could see significant price surges in 2025, despite the potential risks of a September correction.
- Bitcoin's historical performance suggests that while September might bring short-term volatility or correction, it sets the stage for strong rallies and price appreciation in Q4.
- Some analysts predict that Bitcoin prices could reach between $140,000 and $260,000 by late 2025, driven by institutional adoption, macroeconomic catalysts, and inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Alternatively, Bitcoin might be entering a "supercycle" phase, where instead of sharp seasonal crashes and rallies, it would exhibit a more gradual upward trend with milder pullbacks, potentially making September declines less severe or absent in the long run.
