The web's fate: an inquiry into its demise, survival, or complexity?
The digital landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with the open web facing a potential decline. This assertion is fuelled by the closure of companies like The Trade Desk, and the shift towards AI in Google's search, as reported by Jeff Green, CEO of The Trade Desk.
Green defines the open web as encompassing streaming music, movies, TV, journalism, and live sports, capturing its essence. However, not everyone agrees on this definition, as asking 10 ad tech experts what the open web is would yield 10 different definitions.
The open web, as we know it, is shrinking. Traditional site visits are collapsing due to the proliferation of AI and summarizing tools. This shift is causing concern, with figures like Sam Altman expressing worry that the "Dead Internet Theory" might be true.
Google, a key player in the digital world, has been accused of contributing to the decline of the open web through its AI search. Initially, Google denied that AI search would drain publishers, but later admitted to the rapid decline of open-web display advertising.
The digital world is far from peaceful. Everyone is suing everyone while simultaneously cutting deals with others, creating a chaotic environment. The four S's (slop, scams, scraping, spam) along with misinformation, deepfakes, and relentless tracking are issues plaguing the digital world.
In contrast, walled gardens, such as Google, Meta, and Amazon, are growing stronger and increasingly monopolizing the internet. These walled gardens are particularly thriving in areas less reliant on open-web traffic, such as CTV, retail media, in-store commerce, and digital audio.
The irony is that those who treat the internet as their dumping ground are the ones who need it most to ensure AI has data and information to scrape, learn, and consume. The proliferation of AI browsers, while currently an early-adopter curiosity, could potentially collapse the model of "browse, click, visit" overnight if they become mainstream.
However, the potential impact of GenAI on search, the open web, and the closed one is uncertain. Some suggest building systems so valuable that users seek publishers out directly, making alternatives to Google less necessary and less relevant, as proposed by Paul Evans, Founder of V2RSION.
Despite the challenges, the digital tide is unlikely to reverse. The open and closed web will not "die". Instead, they will continue to evolve, with AI not distinguishing between open and closed ecosystems, it feeds on both, reshaping both.
As we navigate this digital landscape, it's crucial to remember that the open web, in its essence, continues to thrive in the streaming of music, movies, TV, journalism, and live sports. The battle between open and closed ecosystems is far from over, and the future of the digital world remains uncertain.
