UK Facing Potential Depletion of Petrol and Diesel Reserves by 2038?

In the early 20th century, the UK witnessed a significant shift in its transportation landscape, thanks to the growth of the oil industry and the automobile. Crucial developments, such as the founding of the Anglo-Persian Oil Company in 1909 (later BP), laid the groundwork for oil supply infrastructure, including refineries and depots that would support fuel stations[1]. This period coincided with the rise of the automobile industry, which, despite early challenges with steam-powered vehicles, eventually shifted towards petrol-driven cars, creating demand for timely fuel distribution points[2].

As the 20th century unfolded, petrol stations in the UK began to proliferate, particularly after World War II, when petrol and diesel became primary transport fuels. Initially small-scale and often associated with garages, these fuel stations evolved into more organised forecourt networks as oil companies expanded their marketing arms throughout the century[1].

Fast forward to recent years, and the number of petrol filling stations in the UK has remained relatively stable, with some fluctuations. As of mid-2025, there are approximately 8,349 petrol stations, reflecting a small increase compared to previous years despite the challenges in the fuel sector[3]. However, the demand dynamics of petrol and diesel have shifted substantially. Diesel demand, while historically dominant for road transport, has declined significantly since the 2019 pre-pandemic levels, down by about 16% in 2024, largely due to fewer diesel cars on the road and reduced travel patterns[4]. Petrol demand has seen a modest increase over the same period, reflecting changing vehicle preferences and fuel usage patterns[4].

The future potential of petrol and diesel filling stations in the UK is influenced by several factors. The ongoing transition towards electric vehicles (EVs) and alternative fuels is a major disruptive force. As EV adoption accelerates, traditional fuel stations may decline in traffic or need to adapt by offering EV charging infrastructure[5]. Diesel's decline in passenger vehicles suggests diesel forecourts may focus more on commercial and heavy goods vehicles for the near future, but overall diesel demand is trending downward[4]. Petrol stations may remain relevant for petrol vehicles, but their long-term viability depends on how quickly the UK reaches net-zero transport emissions goals, which include phasing out new petrol/diesel cars by 2030–2035[6].

Some filling stations are diversifying into multi-service hubs, integrating food services, convenience stores, and EV chargers to maintain relevance. The UK government has also announced a £700 million charging grant to make EVs more affordable[7].

Despite a decrease of over 35% in the number of UK petrol stations between 2000 and 2021, with a slower pace of closures after 2010, the sector remains at a historical crossroads[8]. The UK is expected to follow Norway's transition to electric vehicles in the future, with Norway's electric vehicle numbers expected to overtake diesels and hold complete market share by 2032[9]. Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle owners may find it increasingly difficult to access petrol or diesel in the years ahead due to various factors.

As of late 2021, there were 8,378 operational or development petrol stations in the UK[10]. By June this year, there were 82,369 electric vehicle charge points across 40,470 locations in the UK[11]. The number of electric vehicles in Norway is 28.09%, compared to 23% petrol, 36% diesel, and 12% hybrid cars[12]. The UK currently has 100,000 public EV charger ports, with 82,369 being electric vehicle charge points[13].

In conclusion, the evolution of petrol and diesel filling stations in the UK reflects a long history of oil-powered transport, but the future will likely see transformation driven by environmental policy, changes in vehicle technology, and consumer behaviour towards sustainable mobility.

References: [1] BP.com, History of BP, 2021. [Online] Available at: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/our-history.html [2] National Archives, The History of the Car, 2021. [Online] Available at: https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/the-history-of-the-car/ [3] RAC Foundation, Petrol Stations, 2021. [Online] Available at: https://www.racfoundation.org/data-research/rac-data/petrol-stations/ [4] Department for Transport, Transport Energy Data, 2021. [Online] Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/transport-energy-data [5] SMMT, Electric Vehicle Data, 2021. [Online] Available at: https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/electric-vehicle-data/ [6] Committee on Climate Change, UK's Sixth Carbon Budget, 2019. [Online] Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/uk-sixth-carbon-budget/ [7] Government.uk, Charging Grants for Electric Vehicles, 2021. [Online] Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/chargepoint-grants-for-electric-vehicles/chargepoint-grants-for-electric-vehicles [8] RAC Foundation, Petrol Stations, 2021. [Online] Available at: https://www.racfoundation.org/data-research/rac-data/petrol-stations/ [9] Statista, Norway's Electric Car Market Share, 2021. [Online] Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1086939/norways-electric-car-market-share/ [10] RAC Foundation, Petrol Stations, 2021. [Online] Available at: https://www.racfoundation.org/data-research/rac-data/petrol-stations/ [11] Zap-Map, UK Public Charging Statistics, 2021. [Online] Available at: https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/uk/ [12] Statista, Norway's Car Market Share, 2021. [Online] Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1086945/norways-car-market-share/ [13] Zap-Map, UK Public Charging Statistics, 2021. [Online] Available at: https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/uk/

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